外汇交易中轻仓操作的重要性与价值解析
亲爱的投资者,这里给出外汇交易中必须坚持轻仓操作的三个核心理由:扫损,扫损,还是扫损。
1,扫损。你永远无法预知主力资金是否会进行扫损。一旦发生,这反而可能成为你加仓、摊低平均成本的良机。如果初始仓位较轻,你就能从容利用这样的机会。
2,扫损。你同样无法判断主力扫损的幅度会有多大,有时扫损甚至会出现中途暂停后再继续的情况。而这恰恰可能提供加仓、盛宝银行优化持仓成本的窗口。前提很明确——轻仓,才能抓住这些机会。
3,扫损。你更不可能知晓主力会进行几轮扫损,才会让价格回归应有的走势。因此,轻仓能让你在扫损过程中灵活应对各类变化。
以上三点构成了必须轻仓的充分理由。轻仓,能让你持仓更持久,心态更平稳。扫损行为本质上是对即将到来的正确方向的一种确认,但同时也会带来账户回撤。交易从来不可能只赚不亏。你也不必指望在主力完成扫损后再入场——因为无人能预知扫损何时结束,甚至无法确定主力是否会扫损,以及会进行几轮。唯一可靠的解法就是:轻仓。
那么,如何区分价格逆向波动是主力扫损,还是趋势反转呢?坦率地说,我们无从知晓。只有在积累足够的价格行为信息后,真相才会逐渐显现。而在此过程中(在明确是扫损还是反转之前),你可能面临不小的浮亏。仓位越轻,你才能存活得更久,才有希望等到最终结果……活得越久,你才越有机会判断并决定下一步行动。
译者感悟:外汇交易只要不爆仓,一切皆有可能!
英文原文
Trade Light Relative to Account Size
Soni盛宝银行cers,
I will give you three very good reasons to do this,.....stop hunts.....stop hunts......stop hunts:
1. Stop Hunts: You can never know if a stop hunt will happen. If it does, it might present an opportunity for a good addition to your trade and therefore a better average price for your trade. If you trade light relative to your account size then you can avail yourself of any such opportunity.
2. Stop Hunts: You can never know how great a stop hunt will be. It might pause and then go more. This can present an opportunity for an even better addition to your trade and therefore an even better average price for your trade. Trade light so you can avail yourself of any such opportunity.
3. Stop Hunts: You can never know how many stop hunts there will be before the Robber Banks finally get on with the trade! And sometimes the stop hunts get bigger. So, trade light so you can avail yourself of any good opportunity during any stop hunt.
These three reasons make it an imperative to trade light relative to your account size. Doing so will enable your trade to have "staying power" and "opportunity power" in the face of stop hunts, which are confirmations of the trade direction, but which will create draw downs on your account. There is no such thing as being able to trade without ever incurring draw downs. And there is no such thing as waiting to enter a trade only after the MMs have run the stops because we cannot know if they will even do that, or if they do, then how many times they might do it! The answer is to trade light - at entry and with additions - relative to your account size.
Okay, so how do we know if a move against our trade is a stop hunt or a reversal? We can't know! At least not right away. It will require enough PA to reveal what is going on. And over that time, the price can move considerably against your trade. And the lighter you trade relative to your account size the more time you buy yourself to see what might actually be going on,....the more time you buy yourself to decide if to fold, hold or add.
-tah
